Analysis-With Taiwan drills, Xi tries to salvage Pelosi crisis

Yew Lun Tian
7 Aug, 2022

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping may not have been able to stop Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, but he ordered his country's military to rehearse a much more aggressive step: a blockade crucial to taking the island by force, security experts say.

China's military planners have long discussed a blockade of Taiwan, but until now most likely saw practicing such a move as too provocative, security experts say.

But after U.S. House Speaker Pelosi's visit, China's military for the first time fired missiles over Taipei, flew waves of drones over Taiwan's offshore islands, sailed warships across the median line of the Taiwan Strait and surrounded the self-ruled island in what Taiwan's military said amounted to a practice "blockade."

"These first actions in effect changed the status quo of Taiwan's security," said Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

"This gives China's military a new basis from which to push more boundaries in future exercises," he said.

The show of capability and resolve comes from a People's Liberation Army (PLA) that is far more formidable than it was during the "Third Taiwan Strait Crisis" in 1996, the last time it fired missiles near Taiwan.

The ability to enforce a blockade would give Beijing leverage to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table during a conflict.

If Taiwan, unwilling to suffer large-scale death and destruction, accepted unification bloodlessly, Xi would secure the biggest prize in his long-term goal of "rejuvenation of the Chinese people".

Although Taiwan's public, jaded by decades of Beijing's threats, appeared unfazed, some observers said its military leaders might be worried.

Michael Chang, who managed the 1996 Taiwan missile crisis when he was Secretary General of Taiwan's National Security Council, told local media the drills could be a preview of a Chinese invasion scenario.

The United States and its allies such as Japan condemned the drills. Because they did not want to escalate the situation, they did not directly intervene to halt the blockade rehearsal.

A former Chinese defence official told Reuters that their reaction would be cold comfort to Taiwanese politicians and military leaders.

"Seeing how the U.S. and its allies responded to the drills, how confident can Taiwan leaders be in counting on them to come to the rescue should the PLA attack?" he said.

The exercises were scheduled to end on Sunday. - Investing.com